![Lungu addressing a rally in Kitwe]()
Lungu addressing a rally in Kitwe
![HH and UPND leaders at the rally]()
HH and UPND leaders at the rally
By Maio Bulawayo
Much has been said about the phase 1, 2 and 3 of the voter registration, particularly, with respect to who has gained the advantage between the two leading political parties – the opposition UPND and the ruling PF – in terms of capturing new voters (the effect of other opposition parties is statistically negligible).
Of course, the political landscape can change drastically. I am not blind to that fact. Although, the general elections are still a way off, allow me to add a statistical analysis to the debate.
My analysis is based on a few simplifying assumptions. Firstly, we are unlikely to see a drastic shift in regional (and overall) voting patterns. Regionalism is an endemic problem that in one way or another reflects a breakdown in the moral fibre of society.
There is no quick fix to this problem. It requires a generational shift. New voters MAY not be spared from this syndrome. This is the OVERIDING assumption on which this analysis will be based.
The rest are more or less negligibility assumptions, for lack of a better term. Secondly, first-time voters are often seen as progressive, and agents of change. Against this background, the MAY swing the vote in favour of the opposition (of course, there are a lot of confounding factors, which have been ignored to simplify the analysis). Don’t skin me alive.
Am only but creating an analytical framework. Finally, cosmopolitan provinces are not anyone’s bedroom, at least not permanently. They have potential to swing relatively easily. Several commentators may point to the fact they are better informed and are more responsive to economic and social upheaval.
For those not aware of the provincial breakdown of figures from Phase 1, 2 and 3, they are outlined below;
1. Lusaka Province—————177 372
2. Southern Province————-149 254
3. Central Province—————105 569
4. Eastern Province—————93 096
5. Copperbelt Province———–85 478
6. Northern Province————-79 906
7. Western Province————–66 074
8. Muchinga Province————56 992
9. Luapula Province————–40 673
10. North-Western Province——-39 369
The potential proportion of the new votes captured by each of the two leading political parties based on the above assumptions. Lusaka: I still expect the PF to knick this one, although the strong showing by the UPND in January (compared to 2011) may suggest that this this may it will not be a landslide.
I expect the PF to capture about 55% of new voters (97, 555) and the rest being captured by the opposition (79, 817) – 45%.
Southern: Most of you will agree with me that we expected bigger provinces (population-wise) to beat the Southern Province in terms of new voters registered. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to delve into reasons for this. In the January 2015 (01/20) presidential by-elections, the UPND got just over 90% of the vote. Therefore, it is not an overstatement to predict that they may have as well captured a similar proportion of the new voters (134,612). The remaining 14, 957 goes to the ruling PF.
Central: I expect the PF to capture about 45% of this particular pool of first time-voters (HE President Edgar Lungu captured 42% on 01/20) translating into about 47,506. The remaining 58, 063 (55%) goes to the UPND which captured about 53% of the total votes cast on 01/20.
Eastern: There is no way the PF will let go of their new found bedroom. I expect a landslide in the region of 70% in favour of the PF (65, 167 new voters). The opposition UPND makes do with the remaining 27, 929.
Copperbelt: Much like Lusaka Province, any economic powerhouse (at least in relative terms, intra-country) can be tricky business for a ruling party. This proposition may be particularly valid during periods of economic gloom. But there is no denying the fact that the Patriotic Front is still relatively popular (maybe not as much as 01/20 suggests where they captured 71.9% of total votes cast). It is no walk in the park for the opposition to win this particular one. After rigorous analysis brainstorming, I expect the PF to capture about 62.5% (53,424) of new voters. The UPND captures the remaining 32,054 (37.5%).
Northern: Another ‘battalion’ of PF loyalists (76.71% in January 2015). Some may point to the GBM factor in the run up to 2016. I don’t expect any major shake ups in this part of the country. At best I predict 25% in favour of the opposition UPND in terms of new voters captured (19, 977). The PF should rake in the remaining 75% (59,929).
Western: If there is a province that seems to warrant the status of ‘swing province’, at least going by their voting patterns in the past three presidential polls, it has to be the Western Province. The ‘Mama Wina’ factor may come to play here, but only marginally so. Voting patterns witnessed on 01/20 are likely to be replicated. At best, the above factor may only take off 5% of the UPND’s showing in January (just under 80%). In a nutshell, my predictions are; UPND – 52,859 (80%), PF – 13,215 (20%).
Muchinga and Luapula: In terms of voting patterns, I am not sure anything separates these two provinces. They gave the PF just over 80% of the total votes cast in January 2015.
For Muchinga, the PF should easily capture the 44, 794 (80%) of the new voters and the UPND, 11,198 (20%).
Luapula Province should follow sync – PF, 32,538 (80%) and UPND, 8,135 (20%). Northern-Western – Judging by the 01/20 results and recent by-elections, this particular one is no doubt the UPND’s second bedroom, after the Southern Province. The opposition political party got a whopping 84.8% of the total votes cast. The PF trailed with a paltry 11%. At best the PF can capture 20% of new voters (7,874). The UPND can be expected to pool about 80% of first-time voters (31,495).
CONCLUSION: I am sure the keen reader may be asking themselves where all this is leading do. Well let me spare you the curiosity. The above analysis suggests that over the three phases; the PF has captured 438,329 new voters (49.04%), while the UPND has captured about 456, 193 of first-timers (50.96%).
Of course, this is no reason for either party to start claiming who’s got the kudos. Like all statistical analyses, they come with a disclaimer. In statistical terms, the two proportions may not be statically different and may well lie with the margin of error, and I am cautiously confident that an actual opinion poll (targeting new voters) would confirm my suspicions. When that candidate A’s lead is 2% and the margin of error is +/- 4%, it is no reason for him/her to celebrate.