HH waves at supporters
Political Science Lecturer and Analyst Dr Neo Simuntanyi says opposition UPND presidential candidate Hakainde is favourite to win the Zambia presidential election this August.
President Lungu waves at the audience during the celebrations
In an analysis, Dr Simutanyi looks at both the previous presidential election where Hichilema lost with one percent to incumbent president Edgar Lungu. He says the 2016 just like 2015 will equally be a two horse race but puts Hichilema ahead.
“Undoubtedly the election put Hakainde Hichilema in the most unassailable position as hot favourite to win the 2016 presidential election,” Dr Simutanyi says. “Granted the PF has won most of the parliamentary and local government by-elections held since Lungu assumed the presidency, but that may not reflect the true position regarding public opinion towards PF’s governance record.”
He says incumbency advantages and a perception that it is of no value voting for the opposition has often persuaded voters to vote for the incumbent.
“We saw this under the MMD, that despite a good run in by-elections, the MMD tumbled in the 2011 general elections,” recalls Dr Simutanyi.
Dr Simutanyi points at three factors that he feels will make the PF lose power.
“As I see it, three factors will work to favour UPND. First, without Michael Sata, the PF has a very weak and most unattractive candidate in Edgar Chagwa Lungu. Second, an economic crisis in the form of job losses of over 10,000 on the mines as a result of poor mine tax laws; debilitating electricity shortages/load-shedding; high mealie meal prices coupled with shortage of mealie meal; high exchange rates and high cost of living as a result of high inflation rate of 22.5%. Thirdly, a divided and fragmented ruling party as a result of the succession battle to replace Michael Sata.”
“While it is too early to know with utmost certainty the intentions of the voters ahead of the 2016 general elections, the fractures within the ruling party point to serious problems that will influence voting choices.”
To read the full analysis, click here.